Sectors

Five markets we know from both sides.

HealthHow the same money could deliver more and better care.Where demand outgrows supply, and how a provider stands out.EducationHow the system could reach every child and teach each one better.Where families look for more, and how a private school or faculty earns its premium.ICT & digital infrastructureHow support could follow skills and adoption at home, not headcount.Where the market moves from hours to solutions, and which firms are worth backing.Manufacturing & exportersHow support could help domestic firms grow, not only bring new plants.Where domestic manufacturers can sell more, and what it takes to get there.Agri-foodHow farm support could raise what a hectare earns.Where land earns most, and who can capture the value.All sectorsOverview

Topics

Five questions that cut across every market.

SMEs & entrepreneurshipHow support could reach the small and mid-sized firms able to grow.Where domestic know-how sits, and which firms are worth backing.Competitiveness & investmentHow support could raise productivity, not only jobs.Where firms have underinvested, and what it takes to catch up.Public financeHow each dinar could be tied to a purpose, and pay to the value of work.Where the state will spend, and how to compete for it.Green & digital transitionHow carbon revenue and support could help firms measure and cut, not only pay.Where clean power and carbon data open a market, and who can serve it.Skills & labour marketsHow adults in work and out of it could keep learning what the economy needs.Where to find the people a plan needs, and how to train and keep them.All topicsOverview

Services

Economic analysis for governments, donors and international organisations: we diagnose sectors and public spending, design and cost programmes, and evaluate what they changed.Economic analysis for companies and investors: we size markets and plan entry, find and assess firms to buy, and model what a business is worth.

Sector & value-chain diagnosticsWhere a sector creates value, who leads it, and what holds it back.Public expenditure & functional reviewsWhere public money goes, what it achieves, and how the same budget could do more.Policy & programme designWhom a programme should reach, with what instrument, and how it will be judged.Cost-benefit & fiscal impactWhat a policy or project will cost, year by year, and what it returns.EvaluationWhat a programme changed, for whom, and what would have happened anyway.Market entry studiesHow large the market is, who buys, who competes and what it takes to win.Policy, regulatory & public-demand riskHow incentives, licences, rules and public spending move a business case.Market-entry programmesFrom a study to an operation on the ground: set-up, people, partners and first customers.Business plansA plan a board can approve and a lender or investor can fund.Target search & screeningWhich firms exist, who owns them, and which deserve a closer look.Due diligenceWhat a target’s business, clients and earnings really are, before the price is set.Financial models & valuationWhat a business or an investment is worth, and how it pays back under different scenarios.Surveys & primary dataThe evidence that does not exist yet, collected so that it can be trusted.Custom analytical & performance toolsModels, dashboards and indices, used every time a decision comes back.All servicesOverview

Economic consultancy · Western Balkans

Two sides of the same market.

Institutions ask whether policies and programmes work. Investors ask whether companies and markets are worth investing in. We answer both, from the same evidence, in a region of fragmented markets shaped by the state, legacy and the EU. Much of what matters here is not in the statistics.

Read this site as

For example: the model behind Serbia’s public pay reformFor example: Serbia’s private healthcare market, niche by niche

Who we work for

We work for two kinds of clients who rarely talk to each other, and we carry what we learn from one to the other. For governments, donors and international organisations, we assess whether policies and programmes work, and run the numbers behind them: what a reform will cost, whom a programme will reach and what it has changed. Because we also advise investors, we know how firms actually decide, and where public money will or will not change that.

We work for two kinds of clients who rarely talk to each other, and we carry what we learn from one to the other. For companies and investors, we work out whether to enter a market, what to buy and at what price. Because we also work for governments and donors, we know how the state thinks, and here the state is often the largest customer, the regulator and the source of subsidies at once.

Experience withRecent work for investors

World BankOECDUNDPSwiss Agency for Development and CooperationGovernment of the Republic of SerbiaUNICEFRegional Cooperation CouncilFiscal Council of the Republic of SerbiaUNOPSNIRASUN Resident Coordinator Office in SerbiaPublic Policy Secretariat of the Republic of SerbiaICT Hub
Quality of earnings of a software companyPrivate healthcare in Serbia, niche by nicheMarket entry for an international technology groupThe market for private schools in SerbiaAcquisition search in digital infrastructureInvestment cases in private healthcareIT services firms in Croatia and SloveniaPrivate higher education and the options to acquire

Selected work

Both sides, from the same evidence

For institutionsFor investors

Nemanja Šormaz, founder and principal economist, leads each engagement.

All work

  1. Evidence

    We read national statistics and company accounts with the same ease, split markets into the segments that behave differently and measure the links along the value chain. We build the models ourselves and go to the companies.

  2. Contxt

    Sector averages rarely describe any one firm. We look at each market from several angles: its buyers, suppliers and rivals, the economy and the rules around it, and the relationships and habits no dataset records.

  3. Dırection

    A finding is not yet a decision. We end with what to do, what it will cost and what it depends on, often in a model that keeps answering long after the report.

Evidence

Sectors

Five markets we know from both sides: health, education, ICT and digital infrastructure, manufacturing, agri-food.Five markets we know from both sides: health, education, ICT and digital infrastructure, manufacturing, agri-food.

Context

Topics

Five questions that cut across them: SMEs, competitiveness, public finance, the green and digital transition, skills.Five questions that cut across them: SMEs, competitiveness, public finance, the green and digital transition, skills.

Direction

Services

What we do about them: diagnostics, programme design, cost-benefit analysis, evaluation, and custom analytical tools.What we do about them: market entry, business plans, due diligence, valuation, and custom analytical tools.

Tools we have built

Redrawn from our engagements, with invented figures. No client is named and no client data is shown.

Model

From the market to the company’s revenue

Total, serviceable and won, under three presets

For investors · Market entry studies
Model

What a reform costs, year by year

Cost above today’s wage bill, against the fiscal limit

For institutions · Cost-benefit & fiscal impact
Model

Returns by exit year and exit multiple

Equity IRR and money multiple

For investors · Financial models & valuation
Panel

Firms in the panel, tool by tool

Which supported tools are still in use

For institutions · Evaluation
Dashboard

The supply base, firm by firm

Every firm by public sales and margin, size by revenue

For investors · Market entry studies
Model

Who a programme would reach

Firms filtered from the register on its criteria

For institutions · Policy & programme design
Screen

A long list, scored

Six criteria, weights the client can change

For investors · Target search & screening
Map

Firms across the region

Size by revenue, colour by role, faded where estimated

For investors · Target search & screening
Database

Spending by municipality and function

Final accounts, coded line by line

For institutions · Public expenditure & functional reviews
Plan

Three tracks, one calendar

Company, partners and customers in an entry plan

For investors · Market-entry programmes
Tracker

Fieldwork, stratum by stratum

Interviews completed against the sample

For institutions · Surveys & primary data
Diligence

Revenue by client

How much rests on the largest

For investors · Due diligence
Diagnostic

Which firms carry the sector

Share of firms against share of output

For institutions · Sector & value-chain diagnostics
Model

Cash flow, annual and cumulative

The funding need and the payback year

For investors · Business plans
Monitor

Public demand, month by month

Tenders planned, open and awarded

For investors · Policy, regulatory & public-demand risk
Model

Profit bridge, from entry to exit

Operating profit by driver, € m

For investors · Financial models & valuation
Custom analytical & performance tools
Nemanja Šormaz

Founder

Nemanja Šormaz

Economist in Belgrade and founder of Econominess. For eleven years he led CEVES, a Belgrade think-and-do tank, and from 2015 to 2017 he was Special Adviser to the Deputy Prime Minister during fiscal consolidation. He has since worked for the World Bank, the OECD and UN agencies, and for investors in the region.

About Econominess

Contact

Tell us the decision in front of you, and when you need it.

nemanja@econominess.rs

Company profile, PDF · Belgrade, Serbia