Sectors

Five markets we know from both sides.

HealthHow the same money could deliver more and better care.Where demand outgrows supply, and how a provider stands out.EducationHow the system could reach every child and teach each one better.Where families look for more, and how a private school or faculty earns its premium.ICT & digital infrastructureHow support could follow skills and adoption at home, not headcount.Where the market moves from hours to solutions, and which firms are worth backing.Manufacturing & exportersHow support could help domestic firms grow, not only bring new plants.Where domestic manufacturers can sell more, and what it takes to get there.Agri-foodHow farm support could raise what a hectare earns.Where land earns most, and who can capture the value.All sectorsOverview

Topics

Five questions that cut across every market.

SMEs & entrepreneurshipHow support could reach the small and mid-sized firms able to grow.Where domestic know-how sits, and which firms are worth backing.Competitiveness & investmentHow support could raise productivity, not only jobs.Where firms have underinvested, and what it takes to catch up.Public financeHow each dinar could be tied to a purpose, and pay to the value of work.Where the state will spend, and how to compete for it.Green & digital transitionHow carbon revenue and support could help firms measure and cut, not only pay.Where clean power and carbon data open a market, and who can serve it.Skills & labour marketsHow adults in work and out of it could keep learning what the economy needs.Where to find the people a plan needs, and how to train and keep them.All topicsOverview

Services

Economic analysis for governments, donors and international organisations: we diagnose sectors and public spending, design and cost programmes, and evaluate what they changed.Economic analysis for companies and investors: we size markets and plan entry, find and assess firms to buy, and model what a business is worth.

Sector & value-chain diagnosticsWhere a sector creates value, who leads it, and what holds it back.Public expenditure & functional reviewsWhere public money goes, what it achieves, and how the same budget could do more.Policy & programme designWhom a programme should reach, with what instrument, and how it will be judged.Cost-benefit & fiscal impactWhat a policy or project will cost, year by year, and what it returns.EvaluationWhat a programme changed, for whom, and what would have happened anyway.Market entry studiesHow large the market is, who buys, who competes and what it takes to win.Policy, regulatory & public-demand riskHow incentives, licences, rules and public spending move a business case.Market-entry programmesFrom a study to an operation on the ground: set-up, people, partners and first customers.Business plansA plan a board can approve and a lender or investor can fund.Target search & screeningWhich firms exist, who owns them, and which deserve a closer look.Due diligenceWhat a target’s business, clients and earnings really are, before the price is set.Financial models & valuationWhat a business or an investment is worth, and how it pays back under different scenarios.Surveys & primary dataThe evidence that does not exist yet, collected so that it can be trusted.Custom analytical & performance toolsModels, dashboards and indices, used every time a decision comes back.All servicesOverview

Service · For institutions and donors · Design

Cost-benefit & fiscal impact

What a policy or project will cost, year by year, and what it returns.

Context

What it answers

Before a law, a reform or a project is adopted, its sponsors need to know what it will cost the budget over the years, who gains and who pays, and whether the benefits justify the cost. Too often the cost is a single figure for the first year and the benefits are asserted rather than estimated.

  • What will this cost, year by year, under realistic take-up and phasing?
  • What does it return to society, and when does it break even?
  • Who gains, who loses, and how could the design improve the balance?

Evidence

How we work

We cost reforms from the unit up: job by job for pay, beneficiary by beneficiary for transfers, activity by activity for programmes, so that every total can be traced and the phasing tested against the fiscal rule. Options are compared with each other and with doing nothing. Financial and economic analysis follow the European Commission’s guide to cost-benefit analysis of investment projects, with net present value, rate of return and benefit-cost ratio, and sensitivity and risk analysis on the assumptions that drive them; where benefits cannot be valued in money, options are compared on cost-effectiveness or on explicit criteria. Where effects spread through the economy, input-output and local income models trace output, jobs and trade by sector and place. For laws and regulations, the same work forms the ex-ante impact analysis that Serbia’s planning system requires, and its ex-post counterpart.

Ex-ante cost-benefit and economic and financial analysis of projects · feasibility studies · costing of laws and reforms · fiscal impact of tax and pay measures · regulatory impact analysis · input-output and local income models

Direction

What you get

A costed model with scenarios and phasing; a report that states the assumptions and how much each one moves the result; and a version of the model that the client’s staff can run and update.

What the tool looks like

Model

What a reform costs, year by year

Cost above today’s wage bill, against the fiscal limit

For institutions · Cost-benefit & fiscal impact

Illustration with invented figures.

Examples of our work

For institutionsUNOPS2022

Ex-ante cost-benefit analysis of a local governance programme

Ex-ante economic and financial analysis of the activity clusters of a local governance programme: costs, benefits valued from local data, and the point at which each activity pays back.

For institutionsUNDP and Ministry of Public Administration2018

What the public pay law would cost: a job-level model

A wage-bill diagnostic and a job-level model of the pay law, built on payroll and pension-insurance registers, which ministry staff were trained to run.

All work

Earlier experience

Before Econominess, Nemanja Šormaz did work of this kind in the roles below.

2017–2019Supervising director and researcher

Circular economy

Models of what a circular economy would mean for value added and jobs in food waste, electronic waste and plastic packaging, as groundwork for a national strategy.

2021Lead researcher

The economics of the energy transition

What a transition of the coal sector means for output, jobs and trade, nationally and in the places that depend on it, traced through input-output and local income models under different closure paths.

2018Public finance expert; short-term expert

What public pay reform would cost

A diagnostic of the public wage bill and a job-level model of the pay law built on payroll and pension-insurance registers, which ministry staff were trained to run, and a redesigned pay scale built on a database of more than 600,000 employees.

Talk to Nemanja Šormaz

The other side

Market entry, business plans, due diligence and valuation for companies and investors.Diagnostics, programme design, cost-benefit analysis and evaluation for institutions.

Read this as an investorRead this as an institution
Next serviceEvaluation

Contact

Tell us the decision in front of you, and when you need it.

nemanja@econominess.rs

Company profile, PDF · Belgrade, Serbia