Services

Economic analysis for governments, donors and international organisations: we diagnose sectors and public spending, design and cost programmes, and evaluate what they changed.Economic analysis for companies and investors: we size markets and plan entry, find and assess firms to buy, and model what a business is worth.

Topic

Public finance

Evidence

What the state builds, and how many firms compete to build it, say more about a budget than its size. Serbia puts about a sixth of public spending into investment, twice the EU share, yet almost half of its public tenders draw a single bid; in a typical EU country, fewer than three in ten.

Investsinvestment, of every 100 dinars the state spends, 2024Serbia 17EU 8

Competitionpublic tenders that drew a single bid, of every 100, 2025Serbia 47EU 28

World Bank (2025) and Eurostat (2024); European Commission (2026) and Single Market Scoreboard (2024)

Context

For ministries and donorsFor suppliers, companies and investors

Serbia’s public finances are sound in their totals and within the fiscal rules. What is harder to see is what the money achieves. The state invests far more of its budget than European governments do, but projects are chosen without a single list or published appraisals, and many of the largest are contracted outside ordinary tenders. Pay is set by yearly raises for each sector rather than by the value of the work. For a ministry and for a supplier the question is the same: not how much the state spends, but how it decides what to spend on, and on what terms.

Public money follows inputs and projects more than purposes. Programme targets rarely shape the next year’s allocations, and projects of special importance run outside the regular rules for appraisal and contracting. In open tenders competition is thin and price alone usually decides, so public demand rarely rewards quality or brings new firms in. The cost shows not in the totals but in the services: infrastructure finished late or over cost, and school building programmes that spend far below plan. Pay matters as much: raises set sector by sector and a compressed scale make it hard to keep engineers, doctors, IT staff and experienced managers, the people who deliver services and run projects. The question for policy is how to tie each dinar to a purpose and show what it achieved: one pipeline for all public investment, tenders that draw more bidders and reward quality, targets that inform budget choices, and pay that follows the value of a job within the fiscal rule.

We work with the budget at every level, from general government to municipal accounts, and cost reforms year by year and job by job; our work for companies shows how the same budget looks from the other side of a tender.

The state is the largest investor and the largest buyer in the country, and its demand is formed well before a tender appears: in budget programmes, project annexes, municipal budgets and technical specifications. Much of public contract value is awarded outside ordinary tenders, mostly for transport under intergovernmental agreements or special laws, so domestic firms reach it as subcontractors and suppliers to the main contractors. In open tenders competition is thin and price usually decides, which leaves room for a better offer. Payers differ, and some state companies and municipalities pay late. The suppliers that do well read demand early, position themselves with the main contractors, bid where tenders draw a single offer and weigh each payer’s record.

We read where the state will spend before the tender, from budget programmes and project lists down to contract awards, and know how the money moves through the budget from plan to payment.

Direction

What we do here

Examples of our work

For institutionsUnited Nations in Serbia2024Author of the report

How the Sustainable Development Goals are financed in Serbia

A database of financing flows for development in constant euros from 2010, from tax revenue and public debt to EU and lender funds, foreign investment, remittances and credit, and a tagging of every programme of the Republic budget by economic group against EU reform areas, negotiating clusters and SDG targets.

For institutionsWorld Bank and UNICEF2020–25

Health spending and performance review for Serbia

We built the quantitative evidence for the review, benchmarking Serbia against the EU, the newer member states and the Western Balkans and comparing its 25 districts. Health accounts, household budget surveys and insurance fund data were brought into one set of figures, which we updated with 2023 data in 2025.

For investorsInternational technology group2026

Market-entry strategy for Serbia

No published source measures this market, so we built it from primary records: a census of six years of public contracts and tender files, the filed accounts of the supplier base and an object-by-object model of commercial demand. It was sized from the demand and the supply side independently and forecast to 2032 in a model the client can adjust.

All work

What we do here

Examples of our work

For investorsInternational technology group2026

Market-entry strategy for Serbia

No published source measures this market, so we built it from primary records: a census of six years of public contracts and tender files, the filed accounts of the supplier base and an object-by-object model of commercial demand. It was sized from the demand and the supply side independently and forecast to 2032 in a model the client can adjust.

For institutionsUnited Nations in Serbia2024Author of the report

How the Sustainable Development Goals are financed in Serbia

A database of financing flows for development in constant euros from 2010, from tax revenue and public debt to EU and lender funds, foreign investment, remittances and credit, and a tagging of every programme of the Republic budget by economic group against EU reform areas, negotiating clusters and SDG targets.

For institutionsWorld Bank and UNICEF2020–25

Health spending and performance review for Serbia

We built the quantitative evidence for the review, benchmarking Serbia against the EU, the newer member states and the Western Balkans and comparing its 25 districts. Health accounts, household budget surveys and insurance fund data were brought into one set of figures, which we updated with 2023 data in 2025.

All work

Earlier experience

Before Econominess, Nemanja Šormaz worked on public spending from inside government and alongside it: as special adviser to the Deputy Prime Minister for public administration during fiscal consolidation, as a consultant on public pay, and on budget control in EU accession.

2015–2017Special adviser

Rightsizing the public sector

Analysis of the functional and economic structure of public spending and of staff costs sector by sector against Europe, proposed wage bills for each budget user, and reviews of the functional analyses of health and education.

2018Public finance expert; short-term expert

What public pay reform would cost

A diagnostic of the public wage bill and a job-level model of the pay law built on payroll and pension-insurance registers, which ministry staff were trained to run, and a redesigned pay scale built on a database of more than 600,000 employees.

2018–2021Coordinator and first author

Budget control in EU accession

Coordination of the civil-society working group on public internal financial control, a paper on financial management and control in public bodies, and a method for testing whether budgets fund the reforms the government has promised.

Talk to Nemanja Šormaz

The other side

Where the state will spend, and how to compete for it.How each dinar could be tied to a purpose, and pay to the value of work.

Read this as an investorRead this as an institution

Contact

Tell us the decision in front of you, and when you need it.

nemanja@econominess.rs

Company profile, PDF · Belgrade, Serbia